This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump's approval rating according to RealClearPolling reaches the listed value at 5:00 PM ET on any date between market creation and June 30, 2027.
Leading outcome
52.5%
53%
2 outcomes
Yes
No
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
PlungeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability fell to 53%, down 8.0 percentage points from 61% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 61% → 53%
-8.0 ppOdds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 61% to 53% (-8 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T03:17:32.619Z to 2026-10-21T03:32:02.969Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 61% → 53%
Probability moved from 61% to 53% (-8 percentage points). Observations were 14 minutes 30 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 03:17:32 UTC to 2026-10-21 03:32:02 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 44.5% to 61% (+16.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T03:02:30.010Z to 2026-10-21T03:17:32.619Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 49.5% to 45% (-4.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T02:00:28.960Z to 2026-10-21T02:17:52.020Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 41.5% to 52.5% (+11 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T01:02:39.525Z to 2026-10-21T01:16:29.459Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 61% to 41.5% (-19.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T00:49:58.701Z to 2026-10-21T01:02:39.525Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 47% to 61% (+14 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T00:33:00.333Z to 2026-10-21T00:49:58.701Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 53.5% to 47% (-6.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T00:15:37.453Z to 2026-10-21T00:33:00.333Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 61% to 53.5% (-7.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T00:01:44.863Z to 2026-10-21T00:15:37.453Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump's approval rating according to RealClearPolling reaches the listed value at 5:00 PM ET on any date between market creation and June 30, 2027.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For markets listed with an upward arrow (↑), the approval rating must be equal to or higher than the listed value. For markets listed with a downward arrow (↓), the approval rating must be equal to or lower than the listed value.
This market's resolution source will be RealClearPolling's presidential job approval poll average,, specifically the value in the "Approve" column of the "RCP Average" row of the table titled "President Trump Job Approval" as displayed at 5:00 PM ET on each date in the window.
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Source market
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Story so far
MonitoringPolySays is monitoring this market.
No evidence-qualified explanation has been published yet.
No evidence logged yet. No catalyst, open question, or public source is attached to this story, and we won’t guess.
Any updates or revisions to the RCP Average published after these times will not be considered, except for corrections of data integrity issues as described below. Changes in the methodology by which RealClearPolling calculates its average will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where RealClearPolling differs from alternative sources.
If the RCP Average is unavailable at 5:00 PM ET on June 30, 2027, this market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after that date. If the RCP Average has not been updated by then, the most recent RCP Average published prior to 5:00 PM ET on June 30, 2027 will be used. The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.).
Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.