This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Leading outcome
45.5%
46%
2 outcomes
Yes
No
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
PlungeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability fell to 46.5%, down 4.5 percentage points from 51% in the latest observation window. The cause of this move is not established.
Yes: 51% → 47%
-4.5 ppOdds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 51% to 46.5% (-4.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T17:01:46.397Z to 2026-10-20T17:17:53.815Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 51% → 46.5%
Probability moved from 51% to 46.5% (-4.5 percentage points). Observations were 16 minutes 7 seconds apart: 2026-10-20 17:01:46 UTC to 2026-10-20 17:17:53 UTC. The stated rules end at 2026-11-01 03:59:00 UTC, 11 days 10 hours 41 minutes 6 seconds after the last observation. Timing alone does not explain the move.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 71.5% to 57% (-14.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T20:02:35.489Z to 2026-10-19T20:16:53.485Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 42% to 72% (+30 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T19:17:15.773Z to 2026-10-19T19:30:41.686Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 58% to 43% (-15 percentage points), from 2026-10-17T19:32:27.756Z to 2026-10-17T19:45:03.950Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 38% to 57% (+19 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T14:31:17.859Z to 2026-10-16T14:46:05.689Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 57% to 37.5% (-19.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T11:04:27.542Z to 2026-10-16T11:17:44.604Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A 'mention' will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible. Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution. Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For full rules, see:
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Source market
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Story so far
MonitoringPolySays is monitoring this market.
No evidence-qualified explanation has been published yet.
No evidence logged yet. No catalyst, open question, or public source is attached to this story, and we won’t guess.