This market will resolve to "Yes" if any player joins or leaves the listed team's active League of Legends roster (defined as the active lineup listed on the listed team's Liquipedia page) by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Leading outcome
87.4%
87%
2 outcomes
Yes
No
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability rose to 86.1%, up 3.7 percentage points from 82.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 82% → 86%
+3.7 ppOdds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 82.35% to 86.1% (+3.75 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T08:19:56.494Z to 2026-10-20T08:30:12.976Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 82.35% → 86.1%
Probability moved from 82.35% to 86.1% (+3.75 percentage points). Observations were 10 minutes 16 seconds apart: 2026-10-20 08:19:56 UTC to 2026-10-20 08:30:12 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 91.35% to 86.7% (-4.65 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T02:47:02.810Z to 2026-10-19T03:00:30.978Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 58.75% to 88.95% (+30.2 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T00:45:47.137Z to 2026-10-19T01:01:36.587Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 74.65% to 58.75% (-15.9 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T00:32:42.421Z to 2026-10-19T00:45:47.137Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 86.95% to 74.65% (-12.3 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T23:47:07.325Z to 2026-10-19T00:01:45.953Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 45.45% to 87.3% (+41.85 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T23:17:19.620Z to 2026-10-18T23:30:07.578Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 49% to 40.65% (-8.35 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T14:46:44.139Z to 2026-10-18T15:00:20.515Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 41.1% to 49% (+7.9 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T14:01:47.004Z to 2026-10-18T14:15:26.435Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any player joins or leaves the listed team's active League of Legends roster (defined as the active lineup listed on the listed team's Liquipedia page) by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The relevant roster is whichever active lineup is listed on the resolution source at market creation. Name changes or aliases referring to the same player do not qualify as roster changes. For the purpose of this market, "roster change" refers to any official signing, transfer, benching to inactive/reserve, release, retirement, or departure of a player from the active lineup.
This includes adding new players (transfers, free agent signings, or loans), removing players (to inactive, free agency, or other teams), or any change resulting in a different active roster. A qualifying roster change must occur on or before the deadline, and be reflected in the resolution source. Once the change appears in the resolution source, it must remain live for at least 48 continuous hours to be valid.
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Source market
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Story so far
MonitoringPolySays is monitoring this market.
No evidence-qualified explanation has been published yet.
No evidence logged yet. No catalyst, open question, or public source is attached to this story, and we won’t guess.
This 48-hour period may finish after the deadline, so long as the change itself occurred on or before the deadline. If the change is reverted or removed before 48 hours have elapsed, the window resets and will not count toward resolution. Coach changes and temporary stand-ins for a single match will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be Liquipedia; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.