This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Leading outcome
41%
41%
2 outcomes
Yes
No
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
PlungeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability fell to 40.5%, down 4.5 percentage points from 45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 45% → 41%
-4.5 ppOdds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 45% to 40.5% (-4.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-17T13:16:27.752Z to 2026-10-17T13:32:19.243Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 45% → 40.5%
Probability moved from 45% to 40.5% (-4.5 percentage points). Observations were 15 minutes 51 seconds apart: 2026-10-17 13:16:27 UTC to 2026-10-17 13:32:19 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 35% to 44.5% (+9.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-17T12:30:17.205Z to 2026-10-17T12:47:12.689Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 37.5% to 33% (-4.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-17T09:45:29.508Z to 2026-10-17T10:00:24.264Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 47.5% to 35.5% (-12 percentage points), from 2026-10-17T09:15:58.266Z to 2026-10-17T09:30:47.126Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 39.5% to 45% (+5.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-17T06:16:46.108Z to 2026-10-17T06:30:44.035Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 51% to 38.5% (-12.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-17T05:47:52.691Z to 2026-10-17T06:01:37.857Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 64.5% to 51% (-13.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-17T05:32:42.617Z to 2026-10-17T05:47:52.691Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 44% to 63% (+19 percentage points), from 2026-10-17T02:19:25.711Z to 2026-10-17T02:30:14.048Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter 'Total Cases' in 2026 (see: at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.
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Source market
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Story so far
MonitoringPolySays is monitoring this market.
No evidence-qualified explanation has been published yet.
No evidence logged yet. No catalyst, open question, or public source is attached to this story, and we won’t guess.