This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the United States Senate as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
Leading outcome
66.3%
66%
2 outcomes
Yes
No
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability rose to 66.35%, up 22.5 percentage points from 43.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 44% → 66%
+22.5 ppOdds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 43.85% to 66.35% (+22.5 percentage points), from 2026-11-04T09:02:55.965Z to 2026-11-04T10:20:18.622Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 43.85% → 66.35%
Probability moved from 43.85% to 66.35% (+22.5 percentage points). Observations were 1 hour 17 minutes 23 seconds apart: 2026-11-04 09:02:55 UTC to 2026-11-04 10:20:18 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 48.2% to 44% (-4.2 percentage points), from 2026-11-04T08:32:37.640Z to 2026-11-04T08:47:27.116Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 39.05% to 50.3% (+11.25 percentage points), from 2026-11-04T08:04:34.527Z to 2026-11-04T08:17:24.001Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 35.35% to 39.05% (+3.7 percentage points), from 2026-11-04T07:48:59.499Z to 2026-11-04T08:04:34.527Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 42.2% to 35.35% (-6.85 percentage points), from 2026-11-04T07:33:30.608Z to 2026-11-04T07:48:59.499Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 75.9% to 42.2% (-33.7 percentage points), from 2026-11-04T06:51:02.623Z to 2026-11-04T07:33:30.608Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the United States Senate as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026. The seat count includes all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026.
Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat, even if they take place after November 2026. Vacant seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat.
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Source market
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Story so far
MonitoringPolySays is monitoring this market.
No evidence-qualified explanation has been published yet.
No evidence logged yet. No catalyst, open question, or public source is attached to this story, and we won’t guess.
For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current sitting member of the U.S. Senate who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was affiliated at the time of the election.
Senate members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count.
If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year.
If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.