This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-27 congressional district seat in the U.S.
Leading outcome
83%
83%
2 outcomes
Yes
No
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability rose to 82.55%, up 8.4 percentage points from 74.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 74% → 83%
+8.4 ppOdds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 74.2% to 82.55% (+8.35 percentage points), from 2026-11-04T04:45:53.359Z to 2026-11-04T05:05:53.450Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 74.2% → 82.55%
Probability moved from 74.2% to 82.55% (+8.35 percentage points). Observations were 20 minutes apart: 2026-11-04 04:45:53 UTC to 2026-11-04 05:05:53 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 65.9% to 74.2% (+8.3 percentage points), from 2026-11-04T04:30:39.824Z to 2026-11-04T04:45:53.359Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 54.2% to 65.9% (+11.7 percentage points), from 2026-11-04T04:18:45.219Z to 2026-11-04T04:30:39.824Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 36.1% to 54.2% (+18.1 percentage points), from 2026-11-04T04:00:48.836Z to 2026-11-04T04:18:45.219Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 12.3% to 36.1% (+23.8 percentage points), from 2026-11-04T03:32:45.666Z to 2026-11-04T04:00:48.836Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 21.4% to 12.3% (-9.1 percentage points), from 2026-11-04T03:16:14.631Z to 2026-11-04T03:32:45.666Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 27.4% to 21.4% (-6 percentage points), from 2026-11-04T03:04:49.311Z to 2026-11-04T03:16:14.631Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-27 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections.
The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
PolySays is independent and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, sponsored by, or operated by Polymarket. PolySays provides informational and educational content only and does not provide financial, betting, investment, tax, or legal advice. Prediction markets involve risk, and regulatory status varies by jurisdiction.
Source market
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Story so far
MonitoringPolySays is monitoring this market.
No evidence-qualified explanation has been published yet.
No evidence logged yet. No catalyst, open question, or public source is attached to this story, and we won’t guess.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (.