This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S.
Leading outcome
13.5%
14%
2 outcomes
Yes
No
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
PlungeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability fell to 13.5%, down 5.0 percentage points from 18.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 19% → 14%
-5.0 ppOdds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 18.5% to 13.5% (-5 percentage points), from 2026-11-04T02:32:43.637Z to 2026-11-04T03:03:37.976Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 18.5% → 13.5%
Probability moved from 18.5% to 13.5% (-5 percentage points). Observations were 30 minutes 54 seconds apart: 2026-11-04 02:32:43 UTC to 2026-11-04 03:03:37 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 13.5% to 18.5% (+5 percentage points), from 2026-11-04T02:02:35.807Z to 2026-11-04T02:32:43.637Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections.
The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
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Source market
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Story so far
MonitoringPolySays is monitoring this market.
No evidence-qualified explanation has been published yet.
No evidence logged yet. No catalyst, open question, or public source is attached to this story, and we won’t guess.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (.