This market will resolve to "Yes" if the National Basketball Association (NBA) officially announces an expansion team in Las Vegas between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
Leading outcome
4.5%
5%
2 outcomes
Yes
No
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
PlungeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability fell to 6.5%, down 7.0 percentage points from 13.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 14% → 7%
-7.0 ppOdds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 13.5% to 6.5% (-7 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T16:30:36.464Z to 2026-10-20T16:45:11.590Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 13.5% → 6.5%
Probability moved from 13.5% to 6.5% (-7 percentage points). Observations were 14 minutes 35 seconds apart: 2026-10-20 16:30:36 UTC to 2026-10-20 16:45:11 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 23% to 15% (-8 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T19:00:08.780Z to 2026-10-18T19:18:01.755Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 15.5% to 23% (+7.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T18:46:04.224Z to 2026-10-18T19:00:08.780Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 14% to 17% (+3 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T06:49:01.586Z to 2026-10-16T07:03:32.838Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 17% to 14% (-3 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T06:30:56.696Z to 2026-10-16T06:49:01.586Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 17% to 20.5% (+3.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T03:06:40.575Z to 2026-10-16T03:17:35.924Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the National Basketball Association (NBA) officially announces an expansion team in Las Vegas between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying announcement is an official NBA announcement that the league has selected an ownership group for a Las Vegas expansion franchise, or that its Board of Governors has approved an expansion franchise in Las Vegas. An announcement of a selected ownership group will qualify even if Board of Governors approval or completion of the transaction is still pending.
The announcement must be made through the NBA's official channels or by the NBA Commissioner or another authorized NBA representative.
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Source market
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Story so far
MonitoringPolySays is monitoring this market.
No evidence-qualified explanation has been published yet.
No evidence logged yet. No catalyst, open question, or public source is attached to this story, and we won’t guess.
Announcements that the league is exploring or evaluating expansion, general statements of interest in or intent to expand to Las Vegas, bidding deadlines or timelines, lists of finalist bidders, statements made only by a bidding group or other third parties, and media reports not confirmed by an official NBA announcement will not qualify.
The franchise's home market must be in the Las Vegas metropolitan area (Clark County, Nevada). The relocation of an existing NBA franchise will not qualify. A qualifying announcement will resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of when the team is scheduled to begin play, or whether the selection or approval is later reversed.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the NBA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.