This market will resolve according to how much "The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend.
Leading outcome
68.6%
69%
2 outcomes
Yes
No
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
PlungeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability fell to 68.8%, down 4.9 percentage points from 73.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 74% → 69%
-4.9 ppOdds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 73.65% to 68.8% (-4.85 percentage points), from 2026-10-29T18:02:57.489Z to 2026-10-29T18:31:22.165Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 73.65% → 68.8%
Probability moved from 73.65% to 68.8% (-4.85 percentage points). Observations were 28 minutes 25 seconds apart: 2026-10-29 18:02:57 UTC to 2026-10-29 18:31:22 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 69.85% to 73.65% (+3.8 percentage points), from 2026-10-29T17:47:57.135Z to 2026-10-29T18:02:57.489Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
This market will resolve according to how much "The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers ( page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (November 20 - 22) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
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Source market
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Story so far
MonitoringPolySays is monitoring this market.
No evidence-qualified explanation has been published yet.
No evidence logged yet. No catalyst, open question, or public source is attached to this story, and we won’t guess.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both and have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by November 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.