Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
Leading outcome
89.5%
90%
2 outcomes
Yes
No
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability rose to 89.5%, up 4.0 percentage points from 85.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 86% → 90%
+4.0 ppOdds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 85.5% to 89.5% (+4 percentage points), from 2026-10-28T10:19:39.300Z to 2026-10-28T10:46:29.189Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 85.5% → 89.5%
Probability moved from 85.5% to 89.5% (+4 percentage points). Observations were 26 minutes 50 seconds apart: 2026-10-28 10:19:39 UTC to 2026-10-28 10:46:29 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Shas in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If Shas contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted.
If Shas merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
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Source market
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Story so far
MonitoringPolySays is monitoring this market.
No evidence-qualified explanation has been published yet.
No evidence logged yet. No catalyst, open question, or public source is attached to this story, and we won’t guess.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Shas in this election. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (.