This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team is relegated from Chinese Super League at the conclusion of the 2026 Chinese Super League season.
Leading outcome
0.6%
1%
2 outcomes
Yes
No
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
PlungeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability fell to 2.5%, down 22.6 percentage points from 25.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 25% → 3%
-22.6 ppOdds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 25.05% to 2.5% (-22.55 percentage points), from 2026-10-17T12:17:15.866Z to 2026-10-17T12:30:17.205Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 25.05% → 2.5%
Probability moved from 25.05% to 2.5% (-22.55 percentage points). Observations were 13 minutes 1 second apart: 2026-10-17 12:17:15 UTC to 2026-10-17 12:30:17 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 49.35% to 25.05% (-24.3 percentage points), from 2026-10-17T11:47:25.817Z to 2026-10-17T12:02:26.848Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 24.75% to 49.2% (+24.45 percentage points), from 2026-10-17T11:02:35.847Z to 2026-10-17T11:17:05.960Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 3% to 24.75% (+21.75 percentage points), from 2026-10-17T10:48:13.353Z to 2026-10-17T11:02:35.847Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 49.2% to 3% (-46.2 percentage points), from 2026-10-17T10:17:04.813Z to 2026-10-17T10:30:54.908Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 3% to 49.2% (+46.2 percentage points), from 2026-10-17T10:00:24.264Z to 2026-10-17T10:17:04.813Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 49.55% to 3% (-46.55 percentage points), from 2026-10-17T09:02:57.129Z to 2026-10-17T09:15:58.266Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 3% to 49.6% (+46.6 percentage points), from 2026-10-17T08:32:00.063Z to 2026-10-17T08:46:39.870Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team is relegated from Chinese Super League at the conclusion of the 2026 Chinese Super League season.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Official relegation is defined as a team losing its place in Chinese Super League for the following season through their final standing in the 2026 Chinese Super League, via relegation playoff defeat, or by any other official league decision recognized by Chinese Super League.
If the 2026 Chinese Super League season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there are no teams confirmed for relegation within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official announcements from Chinese Super League. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Source market
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Story so far
MonitoringPolySays is monitoring this market.
No evidence-qualified explanation has been published yet.
No evidence logged yet. No catalyst, open question, or public source is attached to this story, and we won’t guess.