This market will resolve to “Yes” if Russia targets Kyiv through a qualifying military action on the specified date, Kyiv time.
Leading outcome
5.5%
5%
2 outcomes
Yes
No
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability rose to 11.1%, up 3.4 percentage points from 7.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 8% → 11%
+3.4 ppOdds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 7.7% to 11.1% (+3.4 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T00:15:37.453Z to 2026-10-21T00:33:00.333Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 7.7% → 11.1%
Probability moved from 7.7% to 11.1% (+3.4 percentage points). Observations were 17 minutes 23 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 00:15:37 UTC to 2026-10-21 00:33:00 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 13.55% to 8.25% (-5.3 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T23:46:35.952Z to 2026-10-21T00:01:44.863Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 5.25% to 13.65% (+8.4 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T21:47:40.010Z to 2026-10-20T22:02:18.709Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 9.8% to 5.1% (-4.7 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T21:04:34.416Z to 2026-10-20T21:19:32.293Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 4.25% to 10% (+5.75 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T17:31:56.258Z to 2026-10-20T20:51:55.691Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 9.45% to 5.8% (-3.65 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T14:30:30.463Z to 2026-10-20T15:01:00.888Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 13.55% to 10.5% (-3.05 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T00:30:32.173Z to 2026-10-20T00:45:19.123Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 17.55% to 12.95% (-4.6 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T00:00:37.301Z to 2026-10-20T00:17:20.899Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Russia targets Kyiv through a qualifying military action on the specified date, Kyiv time.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Russia, directed at Kyiv.
An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g.
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Source market
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Story so far
MonitoringPolySays is monitoring this market.
No evidence-qualified explanation has been published yet.
No evidence logged yet. No catalyst, open question, or public source is attached to this story, and we won’t guess.
MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Military action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered. A military action will be considered directed at Kyiv if it targets any location within the city of Kyiv.
The occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources.
Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Kyiv time) after the specified date.
If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time.
No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Ukraine and Russia and a consensus of credible reporting.