This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed party wins at least one seat in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
Leading outcome
2.7%
3%
2 outcomes
Yes
No
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
PlungeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability fell to 3.05%, down 4.0 percentage points from 7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 7% → 3%
-4.0 ppOdds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 7% to 3.05% (-3.95 percentage points), from 2026-10-28T12:22:24.973Z to 2026-10-28T13:13:09.499Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 7% → 3.05%
Probability moved from 7% to 3.05% (-3.95 percentage points). Observations were 50 minutes 45 seconds apart: 2026-10-28 12:22:24 UTC to 2026-10-28 13:13:09 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed party wins at least one seat in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. A candidate list must clear an electoral threshold of 3.25% of valid votes in order to win any seats in the Knesset. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting.
If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (.
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Source market
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Story so far
MonitoringPolySays is monitoring this market.
No evidence-qualified explanation has been published yet.
No evidence logged yet. No catalyst, open question, or public source is attached to this story, and we won’t guess.