This market will resolve to "Yes" if, in the 2026 midterm elections, the Republican party nominee fails to win one or more of the Senate races listed below.
Leading outcome
96%
96%
2 outcomes
Yes
No
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
PlungeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability fell to 95.4%, down 4.1 percentage points from 99.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 100% → 95%
-4.1 ppOdds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 99.5% to 95.4% (-4.1 percentage points), from 2026-11-04T04:17:33.819Z to 2026-11-04T04:46:33.851Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 99.5% → 95.4%
Probability moved from 99.5% to 95.4% (-4.1 percentage points). Observations were 29 minutes apart: 2026-11-04 04:17:33 UTC to 2026-11-04 04:46:33 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, in the 2026 midterm elections, the Republican party nominee fails to win one or more of the Senate races listed below.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The relevant races are the currently-scheduled United States Senate races in: Alabama, Arkansas, Florida (Special), Idaho, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, West Virginia, and Wyoming. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their office, after election day, the seat is attributed to the party under which the person was elected. Candidates who run as independents or third-party candidates will not be considered to be Republicans regardless of affiliation or caucus decisions.
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Source market
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Story so far
MonitoringPolySays is monitoring this market.
No evidence-qualified explanation has been published yet.
No evidence logged yet. No catalyst, open question, or public source is attached to this story, and we won’t guess.
In the event that the winner of an election cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that election will not be considered for purposes of this market. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.