Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
Leading outcome
88.4%
88%
2 outcomes
Yes
No
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability rose to 88.4%, up 4.9 percentage points from 83.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 84% → 88%
+4.9 ppOdds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 83.5% to 88.4% (+4.9 percentage points), from 2026-10-29T14:03:00.924Z to 2026-10-29T14:15:52.763Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 83.5% → 88.4%
Probability moved from 83.5% to 88.4% (+4.9 percentage points). Observations were 12 minutes 52 seconds apart: 2026-10-29 14:03:00 UTC to 2026-10-29 14:15:52 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 76.45% to 82.4% (+5.95 percentage points), from 2026-10-29T13:16:37.257Z to 2026-10-29T13:33:40.490Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 69.15% to 76.45% (+7.3 percentage points), from 2026-10-29T12:51:24.447Z to 2026-10-29T13:16:37.257Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by United Arab List (Ra'am) in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If United Arab List (Ra'am) contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted.
If United Arab List (Ra'am) merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
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Source market
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Story so far
MonitoringPolySays is monitoring this market.
No evidence-qualified explanation has been published yet.
No evidence logged yet. No catalyst, open question, or public source is attached to this story, and we won’t guess.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by United Arab List (Ra'am) in this election. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (.