This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player finishes in the top 10 of the official 2026 Women's Ballon d'Or ranking.
Leading outcome
85.5%
86%
2 outcomes
Yes
No
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability rose to 87.5%, up 6.0 percentage points from 81.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 82% → 88%
+6.0 ppOdds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 81.5% to 87.5% (+6 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T16:46:14.944Z to 2026-10-18T17:02:34.096Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 81.5% → 87.5%
Probability moved from 81.5% to 87.5% (+6 percentage points). Observations were 16 minutes 19 seconds apart: 2026-10-18 16:46:14 UTC to 2026-10-18 17:02:34 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 69% to 81% (+12 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T15:16:49.998Z to 2026-10-18T15:31:01.052Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 91% to 69% (-22 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T14:30:36.489Z to 2026-10-18T14:46:44.139Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 75.5% to 87% (+11.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T18:16:07.034Z to 2026-10-16T18:32:28.900Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 81% to 74.5% (-6.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T17:32:51.132Z to 2026-10-16T17:46:22.732Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 76% to 81% (+5 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T17:17:29.211Z to 2026-10-16T17:32:51.132Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 85.5% to 76% (-9.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T17:02:24.125Z to 2026-10-16T17:17:29.211Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 76% to 85.5% (+9.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T14:01:11.673Z to 2026-10-16T14:18:01.794Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player finishes in the top 10 of the official 2026 Women's Ballon d'Or ranking.
Resolves No
Otherwise, the corresponding market will resolve to "No".
The 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony is scheduled to take place in London on October 26, 2026. If more than 10 players tie for the top 10 in the award ranking, resolution will follow France Football's official top 10 list. Any players tied at the same placement with no further official distinction will be resolved alphabetically by name.
If the award is postponed after November 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or the final ten places have not been determined within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from France Football and/or UEFA, including the official Women's Ballon d'Or announcement; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Source market
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Story so far
MonitoringPolySays is monitoring this market.
No evidence-qualified explanation has been published yet.
No evidence logged yet. No catalyst, open question, or public source is attached to this story, and we won’t guess.