This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team is relegated from UEFA Nations League A at the conclusion of the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League.
Leading outcome
4.5%
5%
2 outcomes
Yes
No
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
PlungeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability fell to 4.1%, down 46.0 percentage points from 50.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 50% → 4%
-46.1 ppOdds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 50.15% to 4.1% (-46.05 percentage points), from 2026-11-07T00:11:26.930Z to 2026-11-07T00:51:41.957Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 50.15% → 4.1%
Probability moved from 50.15% to 4.1% (-46.05 percentage points). Observations were 40 minutes 15 seconds apart: 2026-11-07 00:11:26 UTC to 2026-11-07 00:51:41 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team is relegated from UEFA Nations League A at the conclusion of the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Official relegation is defined as a team losing its place in UEFA Nations League A for the 2028-29 UEFA Nations League through their final standing in the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League A league phase, via promotion/relegation play-off defeat, or by any other official decision recognized by UEFA.
If the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League is cancelled, postponed after April 13, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or there are no teams confirmed for relegation within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official announcements from UEFA. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Source market
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Story so far
MonitoringPolySays is monitoring this market.
No evidence-qualified explanation has been published yet.
No evidence logged yet. No catalyst, open question, or public source is attached to this story, and we won’t guess.