This market will resolve according to the number of views the next YouTube video posted by MrBeast after this market's creation gets in the first 7 days after being posted.
Leading outcome
99.2%
99%
2 outcomes
Yes
No
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability rose to 98.9%, up 3.4 percentage points from 95.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 96% → 99%
+3.4 ppOdds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 95.5% to 98.9% (+3.4 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T02:45:22.962Z to 2026-10-18T03:01:03.291Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 95.5% → 98.9%
Probability moved from 95.5% to 98.9% (+3.4 percentage points). Observations were 15 minutes 40 seconds apart: 2026-10-18 02:45:22 UTC to 2026-10-18 03:01:03 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 92% to 95.5% (+3.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T02:31:23.312Z to 2026-10-18T02:45:22.962Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 94% to 90.5% (-3.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T01:17:40.250Z to 2026-10-18T01:31:22.815Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 80.5% to 94% (+13.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-17T23:45:39.069Z to 2026-10-18T00:00:32.867Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 76.5% to 80.5% (+4 percentage points), from 2026-10-17T23:32:26.040Z to 2026-10-17T23:45:39.069Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 72.5% to 76.5% (+4 percentage points), from 2026-10-17T23:01:37.521Z to 2026-10-17T23:32:26.040Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
This market will resolve according to the number of views the next YouTube video posted by MrBeast after this market's creation gets in the first 7 days after being posted. If MrBeast does not post a YouTube video by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the resolution source is not available at the end of the specified duration, this market will resolve according to most recent number of views available before the end of the specified duration. The resolution source for this is MrBeast's YouTube channel (, specifically the 'views' counter for the described video. Note: This market refers to MrBeast's next video posted.
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Source market
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Story so far
MonitoringPolySays is monitoring this market.
No evidence-qualified explanation has been published yet.
No evidence logged yet. No catalyst, open question, or public source is attached to this story, and we won’t guess.
Shorts, previews, or other videos released other than the referenced video will not be considered.