This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team finishes the Swiss Stage of the 2026 League of Legends World Championship (Worlds 2026) with a 0-3 match record, meaning it loses each of its first three Swiss Stage matches and is eliminated.
Leading outcome
26%
26%
2 outcomes
Yes
No
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
PlungeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability fell to 31%, down 3.0 percentage points from 34% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 34% → 31%
-3.0 ppOdds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 34% to 31% (-3 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T13:32:57.562Z to 2026-10-20T13:46:59.633Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 34% → 31%
Probability moved from 34% to 31% (-3 percentage points). Observations were 14 minutes 2 seconds apart: 2026-10-20 13:32:57 UTC to 2026-10-20 13:46:59 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 31% to 34% (+3 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T13:15:37.074Z to 2026-10-20T13:32:57.562Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 46.5% to 32.5% (-14 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T05:16:58.056Z to 2026-10-20T05:32:51.585Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 54.5% to 49% (-5.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T14:30:27.868Z to 2026-10-19T14:47:53.652Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 59% to 54% (-5 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T14:01:09.245Z to 2026-10-19T14:17:41.465Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 63% to 56.5% (-6.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T12:32:54.459Z to 2026-10-19T13:00:29.070Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team finishes the Swiss Stage of the 2026 League of Legends World Championship (Worlds 2026) with a 0-3 match record, meaning it loses each of its first three Swiss Stage matches and is eliminated.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Worlds 2026 is currently scheduled for October 15 to November 14, 2026, with the Swiss Stage scheduled for October 23 to October 31, 2026. Match records count series results, not individual games: each Swiss Stage match counts once, whether it is played as a Bo1 or a Bo3. Forfeits and other administrative results count as officially recorded by Riot Games.
If the listed team wins any Swiss Stage match, does not compete in the Swiss Stage (e.g. it is eliminated in the Play-In), or it otherwise becomes impossible for the listed team to finish the Swiss Stage 0-3, the associated market will resolve to "No".
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Source market
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Story so far
MonitoringPolySays is monitoring this market.
No evidence-qualified explanation has been published yet.
No evidence logged yet. No catalyst, open question, or public source is attached to this story, and we won’t guess.
If Worlds 2026 is canceled, postponed after December 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or the Swiss Stage results have not been determined within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the tournament organizer, Riot Games, via the LoL Esports website (. However, a consensus of credible reporting (e.g., Liquipedia at may also be used.