This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mistral AI's Mistral Large 4 model, when added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (, has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard.
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2 outcomes
Yes
31%
0.0 pp 24h
No
70%
0.0 pp 24h
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionResolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mistral AI's Mistral Large 4 model, when added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (, has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be Mistral Large 4 (released in public preview on October 6, 2026), identified by a name or model identifier that includes "Mistral" and "Large" with a version designation of 4 or 4.0, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors — for example, mistral-large-4-0 or Mistral-Large-4.0.
Models with any other version designation, such as Mistral Large 3 or a later Mistral Large 4.1, and models whose name does not include "Large," such as Mistral Medium 3.5 or Ministral, Magistral, Codestral, Devstral, Pixtral, or Voxtral models, will not qualify. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. A model marked "AutoEval" will not be considered added to the leaderboard. Only scores displayed without the "AutoEval" label will be considered.
If multiple qualifying models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model's first appearance will not be considered.
If a model is first added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard but is subsequently removed and not re-added, such that it is not displayed on the leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following its first appearance, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard.
Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at.
If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard.
If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model is added to the leaderboard by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
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