This market will resolve to "Yes" if the named tight end finishes the 2026-27 NFL regular season (Weeks 1 through 18) ranked among the top 5 tight ends by total fantasy points under standard PPR (points-per-reception) scoring per the default scoring of ESPN Fantasy Sports.
Leading outcome
22.2%
22%
2 outcomes
Yes
No
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability rose to 22.75%, up 19.0 percentage points from 3.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 4% → 23%
+19.0 ppOdds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 3.75% to 22.75% (+19 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T06:50:25.251Z to 2026-10-21T07:04:50.573Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 3.75% → 22.75%
Probability moved from 3.75% to 22.75% (+19 percentage points). Observations were 14 minutes 25 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 06:50:25 UTC to 2026-10-21 07:04:50 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 11.4% to 3.85% (-7.55 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T00:33:00.333Z to 2026-10-21T00:49:58.701Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 23.8% to 12.8% (-11 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T23:02:19.474Z to 2026-10-20T23:17:47.845Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 12.8% to 23.8% (+11 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T22:46:34.146Z to 2026-10-20T23:02:19.474Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 23.7% to 12.8% (-10.9 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T22:30:39.856Z to 2026-10-20T22:46:34.146Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 11.2% to 23.7% (+12.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T22:15:54.260Z to 2026-10-20T22:30:39.856Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 3.45% to 11.1% (+7.65 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T17:31:56.258Z to 2026-10-20T20:51:55.691Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 26.5% to 3.45% (-23.05 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T17:17:53.815Z to 2026-10-20T17:31:56.258Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the named tight end finishes the 2026-27 NFL regular season (Weeks 1 through 18) ranked among the top 5 tight ends by total fantasy points under standard PPR (points-per-reception) scoring per the default scoring of ESPN Fantasy Sports.
Resolves No
Otherwise, that market will resolve to "No".
Only regular-season games count; postseason (playoff) games are excluded. If two or more tight ends are tied such that more than 5 would qualify for the top 5, the tie will be broken by higher fantasy points per game average for the 2026 NFL regular season, and if a tie still persists, by last name in alphabetical order, so that exactly 5 tight ends are classified as top 5.
If the 2026-27 NFL regular season is cancelled, postponed past January 26, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or the rankings cannot be determined within this timeframe, all markets in this event will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be official season-total statistics as reported by ESPN Fantasy Sports (.
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Source market
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Story so far
MonitoringPolySays is monitoring this market.
No evidence-qualified explanation has been published yet.
No evidence logged yet. No catalyst, open question, or public source is attached to this story, and we won’t guess.