This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Leading outcome
66.5%
66%
2 outcomes
Yes
No
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability rose to 68.6%, up 7.1 percentage points from 61.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 62% → 69%
+7.1 ppOdds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 61.5% to 68.6% (+7.1 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T00:33:00.333Z to 2026-10-21T00:49:58.701Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 61.5% → 68.6%
Probability moved from 61.5% to 68.6% (+7.1 percentage points). Observations were 16 minutes 58 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 00:33:00 UTC to 2026-10-21 00:49:58 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 67.45% to 63.55% (-3.9 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T21:33:27.573Z to 2026-10-20T21:47:40.010Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 63.65% to 67.45% (+3.8 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T21:19:32.293Z to 2026-10-20T21:33:27.573Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 55.55% to 62.45% (+6.9 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T15:16:44.430Z to 2026-10-20T15:31:51.514Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 59.5% to 56% (-3.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T14:30:30.463Z to 2026-10-20T14:45:45.102Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 63.6% to 59.3% (-4.3 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T14:00:04.954Z to 2026-10-20T14:17:37.347Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 59.95% to 63.45% (+3.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T13:32:57.562Z to 2026-10-20T13:46:59.633Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 64.7% to 61% (-3.7 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T09:17:30.377Z to 2026-10-20T09:32:17.451Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time.
If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard.
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Source market
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Story so far
MonitoringPolySays is monitoring this market.
No evidence-qualified explanation has been published yet.
No evidence logged yet. No catalyst, open question, or public source is attached to this story, and we won’t guess.
If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall).
If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".