This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team is relegated from Liga Profesional (Argentina) at the conclusion of the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina) season.
Leading outcome
22.8%
23%
2 outcomes
Yes
No
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability rose to 22.8%, up 10.1 percentage points from 12.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 13% → 23%
+10.1 ppOdds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 12.7% to 22.8% (+10.1 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T07:04:50.573Z to 2026-10-21T09:30:13.568Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 12.7% → 22.8%
Probability moved from 12.7% to 22.8% (+10.1 percentage points). Observations were 2 hours 25 minutes 23 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 07:04:50 UTC to 2026-10-21 09:30:13 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 25.15% to 12.7% (-12.45 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T06:32:28.344Z to 2026-10-21T07:04:50.573Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 3% to 25.15% (+22.15 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T06:19:22.060Z to 2026-10-21T06:32:28.344Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 49.9% to 3% (-46.9 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T05:30:29.244Z to 2026-10-21T05:47:59.199Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 25.7% to 49.9% (+24.2 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T05:17:25.794Z to 2026-10-21T05:30:29.244Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 3.05% to 25.7% (+22.65 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T04:47:12.589Z to 2026-10-21T05:17:25.794Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 45.05% to 3% (-42.05 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T01:16:29.459Z to 2026-10-21T01:30:53.499Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 2.75% to 45.05% (+42.3 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T01:02:39.525Z to 2026-10-21T01:16:29.459Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team is relegated from Liga Profesional (Argentina) at the conclusion of the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina) season.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Official relegation is defined as a team losing its place in Liga Profesional (Argentina) for the following season through their final standing in the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina), via relegation playoff defeat, or by any other official league decision recognized by Liga Profesional (Argentina).
If the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina) season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there are no teams confirmed for relegation within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official announcements from Liga Profesional (Argentina). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
PolySays is independent and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, sponsored by, or operated by Polymarket. PolySays provides informational and educational content only and does not provide financial, betting, investment, tax, or legal advice. Prediction markets involve risk, and regulatory status varies by jurisdiction.
Source market
Figures refresh periodically, not tick by tick. PolySays explains markets; it doesn’t run one or give trading advice.
View on PolymarketPolySays may earn referral rewards from Polymarket links at no added cost to you. Full disclosure.
Story so far
MonitoringPolySays is monitoring this market.
No evidence-qualified explanation has been published yet.
No evidence logged yet. No catalyst, open question, or public source is attached to this story, and we won’t guess.