General elections to elect all 93 members of the Legislative Assembly of British Columbia are scheduled to take place on October 24, 2026.
Leading outcome
88%
88%
2 outcomes
Yes
No
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability rose to 88%, up 3.5 percentage points from 84.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 85% → 88%
+3.5 ppOdds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 84.5% to 88% (+3.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T07:04:50.573Z to 2026-10-21T09:30:13.568Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 84.5% → 88%
Probability moved from 84.5% to 88% (+3.5 percentage points). Observations were 2 hours 25 minutes 23 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 07:04:50 UTC to 2026-10-21 09:30:13 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 73.5% to 78% (+4.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T11:15:49.928Z to 2026-10-20T11:46:20.282Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 78.5% to 74.5% (-4 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T06:47:18.669Z to 2026-10-20T07:01:11.780Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 75.5% to 78.5% (+3 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T06:32:36.419Z to 2026-10-20T06:47:18.669Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 70.5% to 74.5% (+4 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T06:00:09.968Z to 2026-10-20T06:16:27.753Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 75% to 70.5% (-4.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T05:47:09.607Z to 2026-10-20T06:00:09.968Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 68.5% to 78.5% (+10 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T04:17:31.992Z to 2026-10-20T04:30:42.004Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 73.5% to 69.5% (-4 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T02:17:21.315Z to 2026-10-20T02:31:03.998Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
General elections to elect all 93 members of the Legislative Assembly of British Columbia are scheduled to take place on October 24, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Vernon-Lumby British Columbia Legislative Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter.
If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections BC (.
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Source market
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Story so far
MonitoringPolySays is monitoring this market.
No evidence-qualified explanation has been published yet.
No evidence logged yet. No catalyst, open question, or public source is attached to this story, and we won’t guess.