This market will resolve to "Yes" if the named running back finishes the 2026-27 NFL regular season (Weeks 1 through 18) ranked among the top 5 running backs by total fantasy points under standard PPR (points-per-reception) scoring per the default scoring of ESPN Fantasy Sports.
Leading outcome
53%
53%
2 outcomes
Yes
No
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability rose to 53.5%, up 31.0 percentage points from 22.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 23% → 54%
+31.0 ppOdds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 22.5% to 53.5% (+31 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T17:01:46.397Z to 2026-10-20T20:51:55.691Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 22.5% → 53.5%
Probability moved from 22.5% to 53.5% (+31 percentage points). Observations were 3 hours 50 minutes 9 seconds apart: 2026-10-20 17:01:46 UTC to 2026-10-20 20:51:55 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 15% to 21.5% (+6.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T12:49:23.004Z to 2026-10-16T13:04:27.084Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 16% to 12.5% (-3.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-15T20:17:59.729Z to 2026-10-15T20:31:49.938Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 23.5% to 17% (-6.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-15T19:20:35.747Z to 2026-10-15T19:49:04.724Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 17.5% to 24% (+6.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-15T18:45:28.046Z to 2026-10-15T18:50:42.729Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the named running back finishes the 2026-27 NFL regular season (Weeks 1 through 18) ranked among the top 5 running backs by total fantasy points under standard PPR (points-per-reception) scoring per the default scoring of ESPN Fantasy Sports.
Resolves No
Otherwise, that market will resolve to "No".
Only regular-season games count; postseason (playoff) games are excluded. If two or more running backs are tied such that more than 5 would qualify for the top 5, the tie will be broken by higher fantasy points per game average for the 2026 NFL regular season, and if a tie still persists, by last name in alphabetical order, so that exactly 5 running backs are classified as top 5.
If the 2026-27 NFL regular season is cancelled, postponed past January 26, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or the rankings cannot be determined within this timeframe, all markets in this event will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be official season-total statistics as reported by ESPN Fantasy Sports (.
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Source market
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Story so far
MonitoringPolySays is monitoring this market.
No evidence-qualified explanation has been published yet.
No evidence logged yet. No catalyst, open question, or public source is attached to this story, and we won’t guess.