Germany is currently scheduled to indirectly elect a new president on January 30, 2027.
Leading outcome
63%
63%
2 outcomes
Yes
No
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
PlungeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability fell to 60.5%, down 4.5 percentage points from 65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 65% → 61%
-4.5 ppOdds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 65% to 60.5% (-4.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T06:32:28.344Z to 2026-10-21T06:50:25.251Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 65% → 60.5%
Probability moved from 65% to 60.5% (-4.5 percentage points). Observations were 17 minutes 57 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 06:32:28 UTC to 2026-10-21 06:50:25 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 59% to 65% (+6 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T00:49:58.701Z to 2026-10-21T01:02:39.525Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 66.5% to 59.5% (-7 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T00:15:37.453Z to 2026-10-21T00:33:00.333Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 63.5% to 66.5% (+3 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T00:01:44.863Z to 2026-10-21T00:15:37.453Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 58.5% to 63.5% (+5 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T23:30:11.433Z to 2026-10-20T23:46:35.952Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 64% to 59.5% (-4.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T22:15:54.260Z to 2026-10-20T22:30:39.856Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 58.5% to 64% (+5.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T21:19:32.293Z to 2026-10-20T21:33:27.573Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 64% to 60% (-4 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T08:30:12.976Z to 2026-10-20T08:45:38.253Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Germany is currently scheduled to indirectly elect a new president on January 30, 2027. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of President of Germany by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially sworn in as President of Germany. Any interim or caretaker President will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such President takes office by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Living timeline · 12 significant updates
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Story so far
MonitoringPolySays is monitoring this market.
No evidence-qualified explanation has been published yet.
No evidence logged yet. No catalyst, open question, or public source is attached to this story, and we won’t guess.
Will Ilse Aigner be the next President of Germany? — probability falls to 60.5%