Billboard updates its Hot 100 songs chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data from the previous week (Friday-Thursday).
Leading outcome
76.5%
77%
2 outcomes
Yes
No
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
PlungeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability fell to 77.5%, down 3.0 percentage points from 80.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 81% → 78%
-3.0 ppOdds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 80.5% to 77.5% (-3 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T02:00:28.960Z to 2026-10-21T02:17:52.020Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 80.5% → 77.5%
Probability moved from 80.5% to 77.5% (-3 percentage points). Observations were 17 minutes 23 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 02:00:28 UTC to 2026-10-21 02:17:52 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 74.5% to 81.5% (+7 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T23:30:11.433Z to 2026-10-20T23:46:35.952Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 79% to 74.5% (-4.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T23:17:47.845Z to 2026-10-20T23:30:11.433Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 88.5% to 79% (-9.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T23:02:19.474Z to 2026-10-20T23:17:47.845Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 85.5% to 88.5% (+3 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T22:30:39.856Z to 2026-10-20T22:46:34.146Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 86% to 82.5% (-3.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T21:19:32.293Z to 2026-10-20T21:33:27.573Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 75.5% to 86% (+10.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T21:04:34.416Z to 2026-10-20T21:19:32.293Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 79.5% to 76% (-3.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T16:30:36.464Z to 2026-10-20T16:45:11.590Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Billboard updates its Hot 100 songs chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data from the previous week (Friday-Thursday). Each Billboard chart is then titled “Week of (date of the upcoming Saturday)”. This market will resolve according to the number 2 song on the Billboard Hot 100 chart titled “Week of October 31, 2026”.
Songs will be primarily ranked by order on the specified chart. If two or more songs are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the songs' listed titles. This market will resolve to the song that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant chart is published.
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Source market
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Story so far
MonitoringPolySays is monitoring this market.
No evidence-qualified explanation has been published yet.
No evidence logged yet. No catalyst, open question, or public source is attached to this story, and we won’t guess.
If the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the specified week is not published within 14 calendar days of the expected release date, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be the official Billboard Hot 100 chart, published on the Billboard website ( or through other official Billboard channels.