This market will resolve according to the number of views the Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer video gets in the first 7 days after being posted on the Rockstar Games YouTube channel.
Leading outcome
95.9%
96%
2 outcomes
Yes
No
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability rose to 87.15%, up 3.3 percentage points from 83.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 84% → 87%
+3.3 ppOdds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 83.9% to 87.15% (+3.25 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T03:47:54.820Z to 2026-10-21T04:02:56.817Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 83.9% → 87.15%
Probability moved from 83.9% to 87.15% (+3.25 percentage points). Observations were 15 minutes 2 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 03:47:54 UTC to 2026-10-21 04:02:56 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 80.3% to 86.85% (+6.55 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T17:31:56.258Z to 2026-10-20T20:51:55.691Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 70.95% to 80.65% (+9.7 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T17:01:46.397Z to 2026-10-20T17:17:53.815Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 58.8% to 66.5% (+7.7 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T14:00:04.954Z to 2026-10-20T14:17:37.347Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 64.4% to 60.85% (-3.55 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T11:46:20.282Z to 2026-10-20T12:01:26.940Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 74.5% to 64.4% (-10.1 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T11:31:11.217Z to 2026-10-20T11:46:20.282Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 65.95% to 74.5% (+8.55 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T11:15:49.928Z to 2026-10-20T11:31:11.217Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 67.5% to 62.15% (-5.35 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T10:32:00.001Z to 2026-10-20T10:47:08.687Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
This market will resolve according to the number of views the Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer video gets in the first 7 days after being posted on the Rockstar Games YouTube channel. This market may not resolve until the 7 days are complete, regardless of whether a strike is reached earlier. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market is Rockstar Games' YouTube channel (, specifically the 'views' counter for the described video. Note: This market refers only to the "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" video posted by Rockstar Games (see:.
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Source market
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Story so far
MonitoringPolySays is monitoring this market.
No evidence-qualified explanation has been published yet.
No evidence logged yet. No catalyst, open question, or public source is attached to this story, and we won’t guess.