This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by the numerical threshold of voters in Florida required for it to pass at the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
Leading outcome
55.7%
56%
2 outcomes
Yes
No
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
PlungeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability fell to 55.7%, down 12.1 percentage points from 67.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 68% → 56%
-12.1 ppOdds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 67.8% to 55.7% (-12.1 percentage points), from 2026-11-04T09:04:53.079Z to 2026-11-04T10:20:23.846Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 67.8% → 55.7%
Probability moved from 67.8% to 55.7% (-12.1 percentage points). Observations were 1 hour 15 minutes 31 seconds apart: 2026-11-04 09:04:53 UTC to 2026-11-04 10:20:23 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 60.4% to 67.8% (+7.4 percentage points), from 2026-11-04T08:47:57.070Z to 2026-11-04T09:04:53.079Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 55.9% to 60.4% (+4.5 percentage points), from 2026-11-04T08:17:59.888Z to 2026-11-04T08:47:57.070Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 98.7% to 55.9% (-42.8 percentage points), from 2026-11-04T07:47:45.789Z to 2026-11-04T08:17:59.888Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by the numerical threshold of voters in Florida required for it to pass at the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
Florida Amendment 3, also referred to as "Save Our Homes from Excessive Property Taxes" and the "Homestead Tax Exemptions, Property Assessments, and Spending Restrictions Amendment" is a Florida legislatively referred constitutional amendment currently scheduled for voting as a ballot measure on November 3, 2026. Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
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Source market
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Story so far
MonitoringPolySays is monitoring this market.
No evidence-qualified explanation has been published yet.
No evidence logged yet. No catalyst, open question, or public source is attached to this story, and we won’t guess.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Florida, including the Florida Department of State (.