This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults the listed individual between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Leading outcome
63%
63%
2 outcomes
Yes
No
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability rose to 63%, up 8.5 percentage points from 54.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 55% → 63%
+8.5 ppOdds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 54.5% to 63% (+8.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T04:02:56.817Z to 2026-10-21T04:20:41.613Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 54.5% → 63%
Probability moved from 54.5% to 63% (+8.5 percentage points). Observations were 17 minutes 45 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 04:02:56 UTC to 2026-10-21 04:20:41 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 65% to 54.5% (-10.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T03:47:54.820Z to 2026-10-21T04:02:56.817Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 76% to 64% (-12 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T00:01:44.863Z to 2026-10-21T00:15:37.453Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 65% to 76% (+11 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T23:46:35.952Z to 2026-10-21T00:01:44.863Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 68.5% to 64.5% (-4 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T17:01:46.397Z to 2026-10-20T17:17:53.815Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 72% to 68% (-4 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T16:30:36.464Z to 2026-10-20T16:45:11.590Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 60.5% to 72% (+11.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T16:17:06.887Z to 2026-10-20T16:30:36.464Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 66.5% to 60.5% (-6 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T16:01:42.707Z to 2026-10-20T16:17:06.887Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults the listed individual between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A public statement is any written, verbal, or recorded statement which is either made in a public setting, published by the speaker, or on the record to media, and the direct language of which is made publicly available within the specified timeframe. Pre-recorded public statements will count for the date (ET) that they are made publicly available.
Statements made in private that are subsequently leaked will not qualify, even if credibly reported. Narrations and paraphrasings do not qualify. Images and videos posted on verified social media accounts will only qualify if they contain insulting language clearly directed at the individual, whether within the content itself or in an accompanying caption.
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Source market
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Story so far
MonitoringPolySays is monitoring this market.
No evidence-qualified explanation has been published yet.
No evidence logged yet. No catalyst, open question, or public source is attached to this story, and we won’t guess.
Language within the content of a video will only qualify if Donald Trump is clearly portrayed as saying it. Insulting language within the content of a video said by anyone other than Donald Trump or a portrayal thereof will not qualify.
A quote post will qualify if added language independently qualifies as an insult, or endorses insulting language directed at the individual within the quoted post; a repost of another account's post will not qualify. A public statement qualifies as an insult if it mocks, degrades, or disparages the individual either personally or professionally.
This includes calling the individual a clearly insulting trait (e.g., weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure), using an insulting nickname (e.g., Crooked Hillary), using other clearly derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a clearly derogatory manner (e.g., “He isn’t smart”, “He has no judgment”).
Disparaging the individual in their professional capacity will qualify (e.g., "He is a disaster candidate," "He is terrible at his job"); however, negative comments directed at the individual's specific actions, policies, or decisions will not qualify (e.g., "He has bad policies," "He is wrong about healthcare").
A statement made in direct reference to the individual will qualify even if they are not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject. The resolution sources will be public statements made by Donald Trump and a consensus of credible reporting.