This market will resolve to the next team Deft officially joins by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Leading outcome
93.3%
93%
2 outcomes
Yes
No
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability rose to 92.15%, up 5.2 percentage points from 86.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 87% → 92%
+5.2 ppOdds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 86.9% to 92.15% (+5.25 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T10:00:36.194Z to 2026-10-20T10:17:52.816Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 86.9% → 92.15%
Probability moved from 86.9% to 92.15% (+5.25 percentage points). Observations were 17 minutes 17 seconds apart: 2026-10-20 10:00:36 UTC to 2026-10-20 10:17:52 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 86.45% to 83.3% (-3.15 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T04:01:38.825Z to 2026-10-20T04:17:31.992Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 80.3% to 86.35% (+6.05 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T01:02:35.014Z to 2026-10-20T01:17:51.793Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 88.75% to 85% (-3.75 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T14:17:41.465Z to 2026-10-19T14:30:27.868Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 93% to 90% (-3 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T05:02:28.770Z to 2026-10-19T05:18:01.234Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 87.35% to 94.25% (+6.9 percentage points), from 2026-10-17T16:48:32.806Z to 2026-10-17T17:01:37.866Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 95.95% to 86.3% (-9.65 percentage points), from 2026-10-17T12:17:15.866Z to 2026-10-17T12:30:17.205Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 73.5% to 83% (+9.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T06:30:56.696Z to 2026-10-16T06:49:01.586Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
This market will resolve to the next team Deft officially joins by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If Deft does not officially join a new team by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If Deft joins a team that is not listed, this market will resolve to "Other".
If Deft retires or is not under contract with any professional team by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Only a signing as a player to a team's main League of Legends roster will count. Signings to academy or development rosters, or to non-player roles (e.g., coach, analyst, or content creator), will not count.
For the purposes of this market, Deft is considered to have officially joined a team once his signing is officially announced by the team or by Deft; the announcement must be made by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The date his contract takes effect, his registration on an official league roster, and the date of his first match for the team will not be considered.
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Source market
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Story so far
MonitoringPolySays is monitoring this market.
No evidence-qualified explanation has been published yet.
No evidence logged yet. No catalyst, open question, or public source is attached to this story, and we won’t guess.
Market titles refer to the team Deft joins for the 2027 season, and resolve per these rules. An official signing announcement prior to the market's close date will immediately resolve this market to the corresponding option. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from the acquiring team. A consensus of credible media reporting may also be used to resolve the market.