This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) during the date range specified in the title (from 12:00 AM ET on the first date to 11:59 PM ET on the last) has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title.
Leading outcome
44.6%
45%
2 outcomes
Yes
No
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
PlungeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability fell to 44.65%, down 10.4 percentage points from 55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 55% → 45%
-10.3 ppOdds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 55% to 44.65% (-10.35 percentage points), from 2026-10-30T03:31:18.242Z to 2026-10-30T03:46:24.688Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 55% → 44.65%
Probability moved from 55% to 44.65% (-10.35 percentage points). Observations were 15 minutes 6 seconds apart: 2026-10-30 03:31:18 UTC to 2026-10-30 03:46:24 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 63.85% to 55% (-8.85 percentage points), from 2026-10-30T03:18:45.341Z to 2026-10-30T03:31:18.242Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 59.6% to 62.75% (+3.15 percentage points), from 2026-10-30T02:46:36.296Z to 2026-10-30T03:01:31.487Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 68.05% to 59.6% (-8.45 percentage points), from 2026-10-30T02:30:12.250Z to 2026-10-30T02:46:36.296Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 73.7% to 68.05% (-5.65 percentage points), from 2026-10-30T02:15:54.828Z to 2026-10-30T02:30:12.250Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 81.75% to 73.7% (-8.05 percentage points), from 2026-10-30T02:03:41.546Z to 2026-10-30T02:15:54.828Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 76.15% to 81.75% (+5.6 percentage points), from 2026-10-30T01:31:42.072Z to 2026-10-30T02:03:41.546Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Resolves Yes
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) during the date range specified in the title (from 12:00 AM ET on the first date to 11:59 PM ET on the last) has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Low" prices available at, with the chart settings on "1m" candles selected on the top bar.
Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
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Source market
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Story so far
MonitoringPolySays is monitoring this market.
No evidence-qualified explanation has been published yet.
No evidence logged yet. No catalyst, open question, or public source is attached to this story, and we won’t guess.