This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed actress is nominated for the 99th Academy Award for Best Actress.
Leading outcome
4.3%
4%
2 outcomes
Yes
No
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
PlungeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability fell to 4.4%, down 3.5 percentage points from 7.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 8% → 4%
-3.5 ppOdds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 7.9% to 4.4% (-3.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T03:06:40.575Z to 2026-10-16T03:17:35.924Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 7.9% → 4.4%
Probability moved from 7.9% to 4.4% (-3.5 percentage points). Observations were 10 minutes 55 seconds apart: 2026-10-16 03:06:40 UTC to 2026-10-16 03:17:35 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 4.45% to 7.75% (+3.3 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T01:47:38.812Z to 2026-10-16T02:00:20.496Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed actress is nominated for the 99th Academy Award for Best Actress.
Resolves No
If an actress is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actress when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
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Source market
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Story so far
MonitoringPolySays is monitoring this market.
No evidence-qualified explanation has been published yet.
No evidence logged yet. No catalyst, open question, or public source is attached to this story, and we won’t guess.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.