Regional elections to elect the Regional Council of Stockholm, Sweden are scheduled to take place on September 13, 2026.
Leading outcome
98.9%
99%
2 outcomes
Yes
No
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability rose to 98.9%, up 26.6 percentage points from 72.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 72% → 99%
+26.6 ppOdds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 72.3% to 98.9% (+26.6 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T07:04:50.573Z to 2026-10-21T09:30:13.568Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 72.3% → 98.9%
Probability moved from 72.3% to 98.9% (+26.6 percentage points). Observations were 2 hours 25 minutes 23 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 07:04:50 UTC to 2026-10-21 09:30:13 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 64.2% to 72.3% (+8.1 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T06:50:25.251Z to 2026-10-21T07:04:50.573Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 72.25% to 64.2% (-8.05 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T06:32:28.344Z to 2026-10-21T06:50:25.251Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 61.85% to 72.25% (+10.4 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T06:19:22.060Z to 2026-10-21T06:32:28.344Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 73.05% to 61.85% (-11.2 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T05:47:59.199Z to 2026-10-21T06:19:22.060Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 64.15% to 73.05% (+8.9 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T05:30:29.244Z to 2026-10-21T05:47:59.199Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 70.2% to 64.15% (-6.05 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T05:17:25.794Z to 2026-10-21T05:30:29.244Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 61.9% to 70.2% (+8.3 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T04:47:12.589Z to 2026-10-21T05:02:32.123Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Regional elections to elect the Regional Council of Stockholm, Sweden are scheduled to take place on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Chair of the Regional Board of Region Stockholm following the 2026 Swedish regional elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally elected by the relevant regional council as Chair of the Regional Board.
Any interim or caretaker Chair will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Chair takes office by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Sweden and Region Stockholm; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Source market
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Story so far
MonitoringPolySays is monitoring this market.
No evidence-qualified explanation has been published yet.
No evidence logged yet. No catalyst, open question, or public source is attached to this story, and we won’t guess.