This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from October 26, 2026, through November 1, 2026, inclusive.
Leading outcome
12.7%
13%
2 outcomes
Yes
No
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability rose to 12.7%, up 9.2 percentage points from 3.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 4% → 13%
+9.2 ppOdds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 3.5% to 12.7% (+9.2 percentage points), from 2026-11-03T23:31:38.077Z to 2026-11-04T00:02:23.110Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 3.5% → 12.7%
Probability moved from 3.5% to 12.7% (+9.2 percentage points). Observations were 30 minutes 45 seconds apart: 2026-11-03 23:31:38 UTC to 2026-11-04 00:02:23 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from October 26, 2026, through November 1, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published.
If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections.
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Source market
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Story so far
MonitoringPolySays is monitoring this market.
No evidence-qualified explanation has been published yet.
No evidence logged yet. No catalyst, open question, or public source is attached to this story, and we won’t guess.
Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at, both in the chart and through downloadable files.