In the upcoming Turkey 1.
Leading outcome
46.5%
47%
2 outcomes
Boluspor
Umraniyespor
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability rose to 45.5%, up 28.5 percentage points from 17% in the latest observation window. The cause of this move is not established.
Boluspor: 17% → 46%
+28.5 ppOdds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 17% to 45.5% (+28.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-17T09:15:58.266Z to 2026-10-17T09:45:29.508Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Boluspor: 17% → 45.5%
Probability moved from 17% to 45.5% (+28.5 percentage points). Observations were 29 minutes 31 seconds apart: 2026-10-17 09:15:58 UTC to 2026-10-17 09:45:29 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 51.25% to 17% (-34.25 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T07:19:15.317Z to 2026-10-16T07:32:53.588Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 17.6% to 51.25% (+33.65 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T07:03:32.838Z to 2026-10-16T07:19:15.317Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 49.95% to 17.6% (-32.35 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T06:01:58.608Z to 2026-10-16T06:15:37.736Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 17.6% to 49.95% (+32.35 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T05:46:35.971Z to 2026-10-16T06:01:58.608Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 51.25% to 17.6% (-33.65 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T05:16:51.085Z to 2026-10-16T05:31:45.790Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 17.6% to 51.25% (+33.65 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T03:34:35.290Z to 2026-10-16T03:48:26.058Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 49.95% to 17.6% (-32.35 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T03:17:35.924Z to 2026-10-16T03:34:35.290Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
In the upcoming Turkey 1. Lig game, scheduled for October 14 at 10:00 AM ET: This market will resolve to "Boluspor" if Boluspor win the game by 2 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Umraniyespor". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50.
This market will resolve according to the official final score published on tff.org. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers.
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Source market
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Story so far
MonitoringPolySays is monitoring this market.
No evidence-qualified explanation has been published yet.
No evidence logged yet. No catalyst, open question, or public source is attached to this story, and we won’t guess.
However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.