This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on October 30, 2026 is higher than the listed price.
Leading outcome
0.5%
1%
2 outcomes
Yes
No
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
PlungeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability fell to 0.85%, down 5.7 percentage points from 6.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 7% → 1%
-5.7 ppOdds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 6.5% to 0.85% (-5.65 percentage points), from 2026-10-30T17:33:39.058Z to 2026-10-30T18:06:02.341Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 6.5% → 0.85%
Probability moved from 6.5% to 0.85% (-5.65 percentage points). Observations were 32 minutes 23 seconds apart: 2026-10-30 17:33:39 UTC to 2026-10-30 18:06:02 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 14% to 6.5% (-7.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-30T16:51:37.117Z to 2026-10-30T17:33:39.058Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on October 30, 2026 is higher than the listed price.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No".
Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If S&P 500 (SPY) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange.
If the specified day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price.
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Source market
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Story so far
MonitoringPolySays is monitoring this market.
No evidence-qualified explanation has been published yet.
No evidence logged yet. No catalyst, open question, or public source is attached to this story, and we won’t guess.
If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. If the listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at.