This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Papertrade's token is greater than the specified value 1 day after launch.
Leading outcome
37%
37%
2 outcomes
Yes
No
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
PlungeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability fell to 36.5%, down 7.0 percentage points from 43.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 44% → 37%
-7.0 ppOdds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 43.5% to 36.5% (-7 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T12:01:26.940Z to 2026-10-20T12:17:29.644Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 43.5% → 36.5%
Probability moved from 43.5% to 36.5% (-7 percentage points). Observations were 16 minutes 3 seconds apart: 2026-10-20 12:01:26 UTC to 2026-10-20 12:17:29 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 48.5% to 45% (-3.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T03:47:17.584Z to 2026-10-20T04:01:38.825Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 35.5% to 47% (+11.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T01:47:48.548Z to 2026-10-20T02:02:01.105Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 48.5% to 35.5% (-13 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T00:45:19.123Z to 2026-10-20T01:02:35.014Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 55.5% to 48.5% (-7 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T00:17:20.899Z to 2026-10-20T00:45:19.123Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 47.5% to 55.5% (+8 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T23:45:56.897Z to 2026-10-20T00:17:20.899Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 33.5% to 47.5% (+14 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T23:30:46.077Z to 2026-10-19T23:45:56.897Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Papertrade's token is greater than the specified value 1 day after launch.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only an official token launched by Papertrade after the creation of this market will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count. The token must be actively and publicly tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch.
The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Papertrade ( doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
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Source market
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Story so far
MonitoringPolySays is monitoring this market.
No evidence-qualified explanation has been published yet.
No evidence logged yet. No catalyst, open question, or public source is attached to this story, and we won’t guess.