This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's next GPT Terra model (5.7+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Leading outcome
32.5%
33%
2 outcomes
Yes
No
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
PlungeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability fell to 32.5%, down 21.0 percentage points from 53.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 54% → 33%
-21.0 ppOdds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 53.5% to 32.5% (-21 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T07:04:50.573Z to 2026-10-21T09:30:13.568Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 53.5% → 32.5%
Probability moved from 53.5% to 32.5% (-21 percentage points). Observations were 2 hours 25 minutes 23 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 07:04:50 UTC to 2026-10-21 09:30:13 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 63% to 59% (-4 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T21:33:27.573Z to 2026-10-20T21:47:40.010Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability remained at 63% (0 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T17:31:56.258Z to 2026-10-20T20:51:55.691Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 77% to 62% (-15 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T11:46:20.282Z to 2026-10-20T12:01:26.940Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 71.5% to 77% (+5.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T11:31:11.217Z to 2026-10-20T11:46:20.282Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 73.5% to 70.5% (-3 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T06:16:27.753Z to 2026-10-20T06:32:36.419Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 69% to 73.5% (+4.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T06:00:09.968Z to 2026-10-20T06:16:27.753Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 73% to 69% (-4 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T05:32:51.585Z to 2026-10-20T05:47:09.607Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's next GPT Terra model (5.7+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "GPT" and "Terra" and be designated as version 5.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors.
For example, a version 5.7 or higher named in the same manner as GPT-5.6 Terra would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as GPT-6 Terra or an Astra-branded release meeting these criteria, while models whose name does not include "Terra" or which retain a version designation below 5.7, such as GPT-5.6 Terra, GPT-5.6 Sol, or GPT-5.6 Luna, will not qualify.
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Source market
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Story so far
MonitoringPolySays is monitoring this market.
No evidence-qualified explanation has been published yet.
No evidence logged yet. No catalyst, open question, or public source is attached to this story, and we won’t guess.
Fine-tunes, modes, or restricted-access variants of an existing version, such as GPT-5.6-Cyber or GPT-5.6 Sol Ultrafast, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.