If the leader is not a listed player, the "Other" market will resolve to "Yes".
Leading outcome
24.1%
24%
2 outcomes
Yes
No
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability rose to 24.1%, up 11.8 percentage points from 12.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 12% → 24%
+11.8 ppOdds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 12.35% to 24.1% (+11.75 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T07:04:50.573Z to 2026-10-21T09:30:13.568Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 12.35% → 24.1%
Probability moved from 12.35% to 24.1% (+11.75 percentage points). Observations were 2 hours 25 minutes 23 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 07:04:50 UTC to 2026-10-21 09:30:13 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 49.25% to 12.35% (-36.9 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T06:32:28.344Z to 2026-10-21T07:04:50.573Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 3% to 49.25% (+46.25 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T06:01:02.792Z to 2026-10-21T06:32:28.344Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 27.2% to 3% (-24.2 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T05:02:32.123Z to 2026-10-21T05:17:25.794Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 3% to 27.2% (+24.2 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T04:47:12.589Z to 2026-10-21T05:02:32.123Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 49.8% to 3% (-46.8 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T04:32:51.721Z to 2026-10-21T04:47:12.589Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 3.05% to 49.8% (+46.75 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T04:20:41.613Z to 2026-10-21T04:32:51.721Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 50.35% to 3.05% (-47.3 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T04:02:56.817Z to 2026-10-21T04:20:41.613Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Resolves Yes
If the leader is not a listed player, the "Other" market will resolve to "Yes".
Resolves No
If a tie still persists, each tied player's market will resolve to "No" and the "Other" market will resolve to "Yes".
This market will resolve in favor of the player that finishes the 2026-27 NBA regular season with the highest points per game average among qualified players. To qualify, a player must meet the NBA's minimum requirements for its official 2026-27 regular-season per-game leaderboard (a player who appears in at least 58 regular-season games qualifies), applied exactly as reflected on NBA.com/stats.
Only 2026-27 NBA regular-season games count. NBA Cup group-play and knockout games other than the NBA Cup Championship game are regular-season games and count. Statistics from the preseason, the NBA Cup Championship game, the Play-In Tournament, the playoffs and the All-Star Game are excluded. If a player plays for more than one team during the season, his statistics from all teams are combined.
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Source market
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Story so far
MonitoringPolySays is monitoring this market.
No evidence-qualified explanation has been published yet.
No evidence logged yet. No catalyst, open question, or public source is attached to this story, and we won’t guess.
In the event of a tie for the highest points per game average, this market will resolve in favor of the tied player with more total points during the 2026-27 NBA regular season.
If the 2026-27 NBA regular season concludes early, is shortened, or is truncated for any reason, the outcome shall be determined using available NBA statistics for completed games, with leaderboard qualification applied as the NBA applies it to the shortened season.
If the 2026-27 NBA regular season is cancelled, postponed after April 25, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or it is unclear which player led the NBA in points per game within that timeframe, each listed player's market will resolve to "No" and the "Other" market will resolve to "Yes".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NBA, including NBA.com/stats; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.