This market will resolve according to Mastercard's gross dollar volume growth (local currency basis) (year-over-year) for the upcoming third fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials.
Leading outcome
4.8%
5%
2 outcomes
Yes
No
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability rose to 11.15%, up 3.5 percentage points from 7.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 8% → 11%
+3.5 ppOdds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 7.7% to 11.15% (+3.45 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T16:30:36.464Z to 2026-10-20T16:45:11.590Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 7.7% → 11.15%
Probability moved from 7.7% to 11.15% (+3.45 percentage points). Observations were 14 minutes 35 seconds apart: 2026-10-20 16:30:36 UTC to 2026-10-20 16:45:11 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 7.3% to 11.15% (+3.85 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T07:31:48.077Z to 2026-10-20T07:45:09.424Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 2.05% to 11.65% (+9.6 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T14:17:41.465Z to 2026-10-19T14:30:27.868Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 6.9% to 3.9% (-3 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T02:01:14.578Z to 2026-10-19T02:18:02.573Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 4.3% to 7.3% (+3 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T01:17:54.457Z to 2026-10-19T01:32:17.840Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 5.3% to 8.8% (+3.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T19:31:14.451Z to 2026-10-18T19:45:35.242Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 3.4% to 7.05% (+3.65 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T18:46:04.224Z to 2026-10-18T19:00:08.780Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 4.5% to 9.55% (+5.05 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T14:01:47.004Z to 2026-10-18T14:15:26.435Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
This market will resolve according to Mastercard's gross dollar volume growth (local currency basis) (year-over-year) for the upcoming third fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials. The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
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Source market
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Story so far
MonitoringPolySays is monitoring this market.
No evidence-qualified explanation has been published yet.
No evidence logged yet. No catalyst, open question, or public source is attached to this story, and we won’t guess.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is the specified company's official earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings.
If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used. Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials.
Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.