This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Oct '26.
Leading outcome
50.1%
50%
2 outcomes
Yes
No
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
PlungeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability fell to 50.05%, down 46.4 percentage points from 96.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 96% → 50%
-46.4 ppOdds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 96.45% to 50.05% (-46.4 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T06:50:25.251Z to 2026-10-21T07:04:50.573Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 96.45% → 50.05%
Probability moved from 96.45% to 50.05% (-46.4 percentage points). Observations were 14 minutes 25 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 06:50:25 UTC to 2026-10-21 07:04:50 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 50.05% to 96.45% (+46.4 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T06:32:28.344Z to 2026-10-21T06:50:25.251Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 99.45% to 50.25% (-49.2 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T10:47:08.687Z to 2026-10-20T11:01:46.732Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 50.25% to 99.45% (+49.2 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T10:17:52.816Z to 2026-10-20T10:32:00.001Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 79.85% to 50.15% (-29.7 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T09:00:50.944Z to 2026-10-20T09:17:30.377Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 50.05% to 79.85% (+29.8 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T08:19:56.494Z to 2026-10-20T08:30:12.976Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 79.85% to 50.05% (-29.8 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T08:01:12.859Z to 2026-10-20T08:19:56.494Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 49.95% to 79.9% (+29.95 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T06:16:27.753Z to 2026-10-20T06:47:18.669Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Oct '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
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Source market
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Story so far
MonitoringPolySays is monitoring this market.
No evidence-qualified explanation has been published yet.
No evidence logged yet. No catalyst, open question, or public source is attached to this story, and we won’t guess.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source.
If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.