This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between October 16, 12:00 PM ET and October 23, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Leading outcome
92.9%
93%
2 outcomes
Yes
No
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
PlungeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability fell to 92.3%, down 4.1 percentage points from 96.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 96% → 92%
-4.1 ppOdds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 96.4% to 92.3% (-4.1 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T00:15:37.453Z to 2026-10-21T00:33:00.333Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 96.4% → 92.3%
Probability moved from 96.4% to 92.3% (-4.1 percentage points). Observations were 17 minutes 23 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 00:15:37 UTC to 2026-10-21 00:33:00 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 92.5% to 95.95% (+3.45 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T23:30:11.433Z to 2026-10-20T23:46:35.952Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 91.75% to 95.4% (+3.65 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T17:31:56.258Z to 2026-10-20T20:51:55.691Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 96.45% to 92.75% (-3.7 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T15:51:45.778Z to 2026-10-20T16:01:42.707Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 92.9% to 96.2% (+3.3 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T15:16:44.430Z to 2026-10-20T15:31:51.514Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 96.7% to 92.9% (-3.8 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T15:01:00.888Z to 2026-10-20T15:16:44.430Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 93% to 96.75% (+3.75 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T14:30:30.463Z to 2026-10-20T14:45:45.102Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 96.8% to 93% (-3.8 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T14:17:37.347Z to 2026-10-20T14:30:30.463Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between October 16, 12:00 PM ET and October 23, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
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Source market
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Story so far
MonitoringPolySays is monitoring this market.
No evidence-qualified explanation has been published yet.
No evidence logged yet. No catalyst, open question, or public source is attached to this story, and we won’t guess.