This market will resolve according to the option with the highest hourly odds value in the "2028 Presidential Winner by Candidate" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com for the "Time Window (ET)" ending at 12:00 PM ET on November 30, 2026.
Leading outcome
21.5%
22%
2 outcomes
Yes
No
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability rose to 21.5%, up 3.5 percentage points from 18% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 18% → 22%
+3.5 ppOdds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 18% to 21.5% (+3.5 percentage points), from 2026-11-04T08:47:58.404Z to 2026-11-04T09:16:46.787Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 18% → 21.5%
Probability moved from 18% to 21.5% (+3.5 percentage points). Observations were 28 minutes 48 seconds apart: 2026-11-04 08:47:58 UTC to 2026-11-04 09:16:46 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
This market will resolve according to the option with the highest hourly odds value in the "2028 Presidential Winner by Candidate" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com for the "Time Window (ET)" ending at 12:00 PM ET on November 30, 2026. If that option is not a listed outcome of this market, this market will resolve to "Other".
An hourly odds value is the value in the "Odds of Happening" column that PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes for an option for a one-hour "Time Window (ET)", as shown on the listing page and in the "Odds History" graph on that option's detail page. Hourly odds values are compared at the precision published by PredictionMarketOdds.com (one tenth of a percent).
PolySays is independent and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, sponsored by, or operated by Polymarket. PolySays provides informational and educational content only and does not provide financial, betting, investment, tax, or legal advice. Prediction markets involve risk, and regulatory status varies by jurisdiction.
Source market
Figures refresh periodically, not tick by tick. PolySays explains markets; it doesn’t run one or give trading advice.
View on PolymarketPolySays may earn referral rewards from Polymarket links at no added cost to you. Full disclosure.
Story so far
MonitoringPolySays is monitoring this market.
No evidence-qualified explanation has been published yet.
No evidence logged yet. No catalyst, open question, or public source is attached to this story, and we won’t guess.
If PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes "NO_PRINT" for an option for the specified window, that option's most recent published hourly odds value before the specified window will be used.
If PredictionMarketOdds.com has not published anything for the specified window for an option (neither an hourly odds value nor "NO_PRINT"), this market will remain open until a value or "NO_PRINT" for that window is published, and may remain open until December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET for that purpose.
If nothing has been published for the specified window by that time, that option's most recent published hourly odds value before the specified window will be used. An option with no hourly odds value published in that period will not be considered.
If two or more options are tied for the highest value, the tie will be broken in favor of the tied option with the higher value in the most recent earlier window in which their values differed. If the tie persists, this market will resolve in favor of the tied option whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
If the underlying market is officially decided before the listed end date, this market will resolve in favor of the outcome of the underlying market if it is a listed outcome, and otherwise to "Other". If a published hourly odds value is clearly erroneous as a result of a technical or operational error, this market may remain open for up to an additional 48 hours after that value is first published to allow for a correction.
A corrected value will be used in place of the original. If no correction is published within that period, the original value will stand, and revisions published after that period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is PredictionMarketOdds.com, specifically the hourly odds values for the options in the "2028 Presidential Winner by Candidate" listing at and on each option's detail page, reached by clicking the option's name in the listing. Prices shown on any individual prediction market will not be considered.