This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 27 12:00 PM ET to November 3, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
Leading outcome
85.5%
86%
2 outcomes
Yes
No
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
PlungeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability fell to 85.5%, down 4.7 percentage points from 90.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 90% → 86%
-4.7 ppOdds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 90.25% to 85.5% (-4.75 percentage points), from 2026-11-03T16:05:03.921Z to 2026-11-03T16:18:09.652Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 90.25% → 85.5%
Probability moved from 90.25% to 85.5% (-4.75 percentage points). Observations were 13 minutes 6 seconds apart: 2026-11-03 16:05:03 UTC to 2026-11-03 16:18:09 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 27 12:00 PM ET to November 3, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data".
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Source market
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Story so far
MonitoringPolySays is monitoring this market.
No evidence-qualified explanation has been published yet.
No evidence logged yet. No catalyst, open question, or public source is attached to this story, and we won’t guess.
If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.