This market will resolve to "Yes" if Carvana reports GAAP EPS greater than $0.45 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release.
Leading outcome
8.5%
9%
2 outcomes
Yes
No
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability rose to 6.1%, up 3.0 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 3% → 6%
+3.0 ppOdds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 3.05% to 6.1% (+3.05 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T04:30:42.004Z to 2026-10-20T04:45:09.352Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 3.05% → 6.1%
Probability moved from 3.05% to 6.1% (+3.05 percentage points). Observations were 14 minutes 27 seconds apart: 2026-10-20 04:30:42 UTC to 2026-10-20 04:45:09 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 8.5% to 3.5% (-5 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T03:47:17.584Z to 2026-10-20T04:01:38.825Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 30% to 13% (-17 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T06:01:05.450Z to 2026-10-19T06:15:32.185Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 22% to 30% (+8 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T05:47:09.235Z to 2026-10-19T06:01:05.450Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 9.5% to 23.5% (+14 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T11:31:36.134Z to 2026-10-18T11:47:40.733Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 13% to 9% (-4 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T08:31:50.160Z to 2026-10-18T09:02:00.719Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Carvana reports GAAP EPS greater than $0.45 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release.
Resolves No
Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.
As of market creation, Carvana is estimated to release earnings on October 28, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Carvana's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $0.45 as of market creation. If Carvana releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha.
If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
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Source market
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Story so far
MonitoringPolySays is monitoring this market.
No evidence-qualified explanation has been published yet.
No evidence logged yet. No catalyst, open question, or public source is attached to this story, and we won’t guess.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for GAAP EPS as of market creation. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.