This market refers to the tennis match between Alastair Gray and Valentin Royer in the Charlottesville, originally scheduled for November 2, 2026 at 10:00AM ET.
Leading outcome
100%
100%
2 outcomes
Alastair Gray
Valentin Royer
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability rose to 100%, up 12.6 percentage points from 87.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Alastair Gray: 87% → 100%
+12.6 ppOdds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 87.35% to 100% (+12.65 percentage points), from 2026-11-03T16:18:06.972Z to 2026-11-03T19:01:23.972Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Alastair Gray: 87.35% → 100%
Probability moved from 87.35% to 100% (+12.65 percentage points). Observations were 2 hours 43 minutes 17 seconds apart: 2026-11-03 16:18:06 UTC to 2026-11-03 19:01:23 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 96.5% to 87.35% (-9.15 percentage points), from 2026-11-03T16:05:03.921Z to 2026-11-03T16:18:06.972Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
This market refers to the tennis match between Alastair Gray and Valentin Royer in the Charlottesville, originally scheduled for November 2, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alastair Gray' if Alastair Gray advances against Valentin Royer. This market will resolve to 'Valentin Royer' if Valentin Royer advances against Alastair Gray.
If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
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Source market
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Story so far
MonitoringPolySays is monitoring this market.
No evidence-qualified explanation has been published yet.
No evidence logged yet. No catalyst, open question, or public source is attached to this story, and we won’t guess.
If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.