Will Russia capture Shevchenko by...?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.386699° N, 37.105096° E in Shevchenko, Donetsk Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
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- Current leader
- 98.9% 99%
- Largest 24h move
- +59.9 pp
- 24h volume
- 13.4K
- Liquidity
- 25.8K
Top candidates
1 outcome
Will Russia capture Shevchenko by October 31?
99%
+59.9 pp 24h
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.386699° N, 37.105096° E in Shevchenko, Donetsk Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
Resolves No
Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map ( by the resolution date. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.
Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Read the complete resolution rules
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Intersection Location in Shevchenko: Shevchenko Location: The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap ( may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
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Visual locations supplied in the market’s official description.
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