Who will Trump publicly insult by July 31?
By PolySays EditorialUpdated Editorial method
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks the listed individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner between market creation and the specified date (ET).
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- Current leader
- Marjorie Taylor Greene by July 31, 2026 49%
- Largest 24h move
- Marjorie Taylor Greene by July 31, 2026 +39%
- 24h volume
- 736.5K
- Liquidity
- 43.8K
Top candidates
22 outcomes
Marjorie Taylor Greene by July 31, 2026
49%
+39% 24h
Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026
48%
0% 24h
Alex Jones by July 31, 2026
48%
+5% 24h
Zohran Mamdani by July 31, 2026
38%
-2% 24h
Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026
24%
-6% 24h
Show all outcomes
Friedrich Merz by July 31, 2026
10%
-0%
Candace Owens by July 31, 2026
8%
0%
Keir Starmer by July 31, 2026
8%
-2%
Norah O'Donnell by July 31, 2026
8%
0%
Megyn Kelly by July 31, 2026
7%
0%
Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026
4%
+3%
Kevin Warsh by July 31, 2026
4%
-4%
Jerome Powell by July 31, 2026
3%
-36%
Mohammed bin Salman by July 31, 2026
3%
—
Benjamin Netanyahu by July 31, 2026
1%
-3%
Xi Jinping by July 31, 2026
1%
—
J.D. Vance by July 31, 2026
1%
—
Elon Musk by July 31, 2026
1%
-2%
Pam Bondi by July 31, 2026
1%
-4%
Viktor Orbán by July 31, 2026
1%
—
Pope Leo XIV by July 31, 2026
1%
-6%
Melania Trump by July 31, 2026
1%
—
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks the listed individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count.
Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count. A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject. Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies. The resolution source for this market will be public statements from Donald Trump.
Living timeline · 2 significant updates
Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet
Odds chart
Candidate probability over time
Story so far
Limited confidenceDonald Trump publicly insult Elon Musk by July 31, 2026 moved lower from 7.5% to 0.6% (-6.9 points) between 2026-07-30T23:00:10.139Z and 2026-07-31T02:00:10.746Z;...
The latest move is visible, but the public source trail is still thin.
Latest update
Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet
Donald Trump publicly insult Elon Musk by July 31, 2026 moved lower from 7.5% to 0.6% (-6.9 points) between 2026-07-30T23:00:10.139Z and 2026-07-31T02:00:10.746Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.
Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
- No catalyst has been confirmed yet.
Unresolved questions
- No open questions have been logged yet.
People and institutions to watch
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Source trail
No public sources are attached yet.
Living timeline
Significant updates
The "Donald Trump publicly insult Elon Musk by July 31, 2026" outcome in "Who will Trump publicly insult by July 31?" made a sharp move from 7.5% to 0.6% between 2026-07-30T23:00:10.139Z and 2026-07-31T02:00:10.746Z. PolySays has not found a clear public news source, official statement, or other confirmed catalyst that explains the timing of this move. The move may reflect private interpretation, social discussion, liquidity conditions, or information that has not yet appeared in reliable public sources.
What changed
The market repriced by -6.9 points, but the public narrative has not caught up with a confirmed explanation.
What to watch next
Watch for official statements, later reporting, social posts that become verifiable public context, and whether volume or the new probability level holds in later snapshots.
Sources
No external sources are attached yet.
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