Which week will OpenAI release Astra?
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups.
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- Current leader
- 100% 100%
- Largest 24h move
- +54.3 pp
- 24h volume
- 32K
- Liquidity
- 0
Top candidates
2 outcomes
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released between August 31 and September 6, 2026?
100%
+54.3 pp 24h
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released between September 7 and September 13, 2026?
0%
-52.8 pp 24h
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
Resolves Yes
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups.
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed “Astra,” describing an internal version of Astra as its “next major model.” You can read more about that here:. This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which OpenAI releases "Astra" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, and that model is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting. Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
Read the complete resolution rules
A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website.
Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
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